How we estimate a fixed-scope build
The math behind our quotes. No padding, no surprises — but no waterfall either.
Clients ask why we're willing to quote a fixed price when most studios won't. Short answer: because we'd rather eat the variance once than have the same fight every month.
The three estimates
We produce three numbers: a P50 (median), a P80 (eight out of ten projects), and a hard ceiling. We quote the P80. We bill the P80 even if we ship at P50.
What we lock and what we leave open
We lock: the outcome (the specific metric we're moving) and the timeline (a hard date). We leave open: the implementation. If we find a faster way halfway through, we take it. If a feature turns out not to matter, we cut it and ship the others harder.
Why this works for us and not others
We're a small team with a narrow practice. Variance compresses when you've done the shape twenty times. A generalist studio pricing the same way is taking a real risk.
The variance is small when the work is small. Stay small.
Cite this article
Copy the citation block — formatted the way our LLM-friendly markup expects it (BRIEF §10.3 #4).
Fabio Cerami (). “How we estimate a fixed-scope build.” NEXUS Journal. http://localhost:3000/en/journal/estimating-fixed-scope